Chancellor’s speech paving the way to a potentially difficult Autumn budget

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, addressed the House of Commons last week to detail the results of a Treasury spending audit. She has alluded to this in previous comments when referring to making assessments of the public spending inheritance.


She claimed that the audit revealed £22 billion of unfunded pledges that have been inherited from the previous government. These include commitments made to the Rwanda scheme, the Advanced British Standard and the New Hospital Programme. Shortfalls were also found from not increasing Departmental budgets to cover public sector pay settlements.


As a start on dealing with the overspend, the Chancellor announced savings of £5.5 billion for this year, with a further £8.1 billion to come next year. These measures include:

• Cutting winter fuel payments to only those who receive other State support. (Note that winter fuel payments are devolved in Scotland and Northern Ireland.)
• Scrapping the Rwanda migration partnership and retrospection of the Illegal Migration Act.
• Cancelling the Investment Opportunity Fund and other small projects.
• Next year, cancelling the Advanced British Standard and unaffordable road and railway schemes.
• The New Hospital Programme will also be reviewed.

The Chancellor did confirm that the Independent Pay Review Body recommendations for pay uplifts for public sector workers have been accepted. These will average 5.5%.
New plans were outlined for Spending Reviews to be set every two years but cover a three-year period so that there is a one-year overlap with the previous Spending Review. This should allow for a more joined up approach to public finance.
The Chancellor also committed to a single major fiscal event a year, as has been the case for the last few years. This presumably will continue with the recent pattern in which the Budget takes place in the autumn, covering all significant tax and spending announcements. Any spring Statement would simply be in response to the second forecast that the Office for Budget Responsibility makes.

As part of her speech, the Chancellor also outlined tax plans that will be confirmed in the Budget, which is scheduled for 30 October. These include:

• Ending VAT tax breaks for private schools from 1 January 2025.
• Replacing the non-domicile regime with a new residence-based regime (this was already planned under the previous government)
• Extending the Energy Profits Levy for one year to 31 March 2030, tightening its investment allowances and increasing the levy rate to 38% (from 35%) from 1 November 2024.
• Closing the carried-interest loophole used by private equity fund managers to reduce their tax.

These measures have all been discussed in the Labour Party manifesto so there are no great surprises here.
Of course, you don’t need a calculator to see that the £22 billion shortfall in public spending will not be covered by the saving measures the Chancellor has already announced. So, it remains to be seen whether there will be any further ‘pain’ in the October Budget.
Alternatively, the Chancellor may be delivering all the bad news now, while it’s expected following the change in government, and she’s saving some good news for the budget. We wait to see, but we will keep you posted on all the changes that may affect you. If you are concerned about how any of these measures may affect you, please feel free to get in touch, we will be happy to help you.